By Rich Winter
So, I've been going over the Fantasy football stuff pretty hard for the last three weeks or so. Along the way, I've been critical of the experts and tossed some Toby Gerhart is the No. 25 fantasy RB, and I've taken a few shots.
Today, I'm giving you the list of top-25 Fantasy Football QB. Seeing the experts pick Andy Dalton and Philip Rivers at the 17th and 18th best Fantasy QB's just blows my mind. Here is the list with a little thought and a few stats to back it up.
Keep in mind, I'm basing these stats on my league's scoring which is 6 points for a TD pass and one point for every 25 yards passing with bonus points occurring when said QB reaches 300 yards.
Rich Winter Fantasy Football QB list:
1. Peyton Manning - The season this man had last year was just special. That said, if you're taking him No. 1 overall or as your No. 1 QB, I'm expecting those stats to come back to earth a bit. Still elite, but not freaking mind-blowing.
Predictions - 5000 yards, 42 td's.
2. Drew Brees - You can almost pencil this guy in for 5000 yards as he gets there pretty regularly. Brees had 39 td's last season and no reason to think he'll drop off very much. Say what you want, this guy is the No. 2 point scorer for QB's.
Predictions - 5100 yards, 38 td's
3. Tom Brady - Someone told me via Twitter that Tom had gone in the 12th round in a mock draft. Well, that's just peachy. People remember last year and they think Tom has slipped a notch. What they forget is the dreadful receiving corp he worked into decency. The Patriots are running no huddle at camp this summer and you can bet with a full arsenal that Tom isn't going to be the 12th best qb in the league.
Predictions - 4800 yards, 36 td's
4. Aaron Rodgers - I somehow want to vault a new guy over him but I just can't. The man is too consistent and he has a terrific offense and two great wide-receivers. I get the feeling Mr. Rodgers is going to be chucking it this fall.
Predictions: 4600 yards, 34 td's
5. Philip Rivers - I get tore up from the twitter world every time I dare mention Philip Rivers in this area. The stats are hard to deny. The man had 4478 yards and 32 td's. Both of those were in the top five. I'm not sure if it's something to do with San Diego not getting noticed, but P. Riv shows up every year.
Predictions: 4450 yards, 32 td's
6. Andy Dalton - Yeah, I know he throws a lot of interceptions. He also tosses quite a few Td's. Last time I checked, int's were worth -2 and td's worth six. Dalton had 33 td passes last season, third in the league and 4293 yards passing.
Prediction: His QB rating is going to go up this season. Those stats might suffer a bit, but he'll get you plenty of points. 4250 yards and 30 td's
7. Matt Stafford - This guy makes me nervous because I never know if he's going to be awesome or just not show up. Still though, the Lions throw it a lot and Stafford is usually close to 5000 yards.
Predictions: 4700 yards and 29 td's.
8. Andrew Luck - I get that he's never had huge numbers yet. He was poised to do that last season and then Reggie Wayne went down. Wayne is back, and the Colts got Hakeem Nicks. I'm told the offense is clicking.
Predictions - Please don't put Colin K. in here. Luck is going to be the best of all of those young QB's. 4400 yards and 28 td's
9. Jay Cutler - Brandon Marshall seems to think Cutler is going to be the MVP. I'm not sure about that but all I know is the Bears defense stinks and Cutler is going to be throwing it around. I sense some of his bad body language is going to go away this year.
Predictions: 4300 yards and 27 td's
10. Matt Ryan - Bit of a down year for Ryan last season although he still tossed the ball for 4500 yards and 26 td's. That's a down year? I'm not quite sold on Ryan here, but he could easily be in the top five Qb's with all the talent he'll be throwing to. Don't be scared to draft him higher.
Predictions - 4700 yards, 25 td's
Okay - (Less analysis, just predictions)
11. RG3 - I love that this kid ran for 800 yards his first season. If he gets that kind of running production and throws for 3700 yards and runs and passes for 30 td's. He could be dynamic
12. Nick Foles - 4300 yards and 25 td's
13. Tony Romo - That back scares me...4200 yards and 25 td's.
14. Russell Wilson - 26 td passes in each of his first two years. Pencil him for that and 3900 yards.
15. Ben Roethlisberger - Could be much higher, 4400 yards and 26 td's
16. Cam Newton - I worry about all of those receivers that are new.
17. Colin Kaepernick - I saw him pass for 81 yards in a game last season. Have defenses caught up?
18. Carson Palmer - Pretty consistent last year, has some weapons.
19. Eli Manning - Was horrible last year
20. Josh McCown - Could be decent with those two big horses at wide receiver
21. Joe Flacco - Got paid didn't produce
22. Matt Schaub - Won a fantasy league with him a few years ago because he was always throwing in the second half.
23. Alex Smith - Solid, not spectacular
24. Sam Bradford - Just because he can
25. Ryan Tannehill - Decent, at times.
The NFL QB's are very good again this year.
A lot of people are suggesting to not even waste a pick on someone like Aaron Rodgers until the 5th round because if you don't get him, someone just as good, will be there waiting.
Clearly having a QB who can toss the ball for 5000 yards and 40 plus Td's, puts you in a different stratosphere, but, look for guys like Rivers and Dalton who are gonna be drafted way later than they should be.
Panic Galore out.
Let me know your thoughts.